AGP Executive Report

Madagascar Security Crisis: Antananarivo’s disappearance wave is deepening, with official police figures citing 172 disappearances since Jan 1, 2026 (164 still missing, eight children found dead), and 119 cases concentrated in Analamanga—while public anger has spilled into vigilante violence. Oman–Madagascar Investment Talks: President Randrianirina met Oman Investment Authority chairman Abdulsalam Mohammed Al Murshidi to discuss expanding economic and investment cooperation across sectors. Critical Minerals Finance: Harena Rare Earths signed a project development funding agreement with the US International Development Finance Corporation, committing up to $4.84m toward its Ampasindava ionic clay rare earth project in Madagascar. Graphite Project Milestone: Evion Group secured mining permits for its Maniry graphite project, clearing a key step toward financing, offtake talks, and a final investment decision. Regional Business Leadership: PACCI elected Tanzania’s Vincent Minja as vice president for the East African region, with Madagascar included among the represented countries. Visa Access for Travel: Panama published a visa-free list for nine African countries including Madagascar, allowing up to three months’ stay.

Mining & Critical Minerals: Evion Group secured mining permits for its Maniry graphite project in southern Madagascar, converting remaining exploration licences into mining tenure and clearing the path toward financing, offtake talks, a Final Investment Decision and development. Investment Diplomacy: Madagascar President Colonel Michael Randrianirina met Oman Investment Authority (OIA) chairman Abdulsalam Mohammed Al Murshidi to discuss expanding economic and investment cooperation between the two countries. Regional Trade & Business: PACCI elected Tanzania’s TNCC president Vincent Minja as Vice President for the East African region (2026–2028), with Madagascar included among the 14 represented countries. Energy & Infrastructure: A major offshore wind installation vessel, Maersk Viridis, docked in Curaçao on a transatlantic route that includes a stop via Madagascar, underscoring the region’s role in global energy supply chains. Security & Trade Risks: East Africa’s coast faces a growing threat from unregistered small vessels used for organised crime and smuggling, with authorities reporting large drug seizures and highlighting risks to coastal livelihoods. Digital Connectivity: Amazon and Starlink are pushing satellite internet competition into Africa, raising questions about how African nations should engage with the new space economy.

Mining & Critical Minerals: Evion Group secured mining permits for its Maniry graphite project in Madagascar, converting remaining exploration licences into mining tenure and clearing the way for financing, offtake talks, a final investment decision and construction. Diplomacy & Investment: President Andry Rajoelina met Oman Investment Authority chairman Abdulsalam Mohammed Al Murshidi to discuss economic and investment cooperation. Energy & Infrastructure: Madagascar’s wave of disappearances and violent killings is raising public fear, with authorities reporting 172 disappearance cases this year (including 91 children) and deploying large patrol forces in Antananarivo. Regional Trade & Security: SADC reaffirmed that peace and security are the foundation for regional integration and economic development, with member states adopting measures on governance, migration management, and the fight against corruption and organised crime. Mobile Finance: Airtel Money and Baobab Bank enabled mobile bank transfers, pushing more financial services onto phones. Business Climate: Madagascar reimposed a nationwide energy emergency, a move likely to affect operations and costs for firms.

Graphite & Mining Permits: Evion Group secured mining permits for its Maniry graphite project in Madagascar, converting remaining exploration licences into mining tenure and clearing the way for financing, offtake talks and a Final Investment Decision. Digital Finance: Airtel Money Madagascar and Baobab Bank launched an interoperable 24/7 mobile transfer service between wallets and Baobab accounts, aiming to boost financial inclusion. Energy Policy: Madagascar reinstated a nationwide state of energy emergency to protect fuel supplies and essential services amid Middle East-driven oil market uncertainty. Regional Trade Leadership: Tanzania’s Vincent Minja was elected PACCI Vice President for the East African region, representing 14 countries including Madagascar, with a focus on intra-African trade and investment. Security & Governance: A report highlights a sharp rise in disappearances in Madagascar, with fear growing in Antananarivo despite increased patrols. Sustainability & Health (Global, with Madagascar link): Beyond2020 announced solar-powered health centres in India for 200,000+ people, while a separate Madagascar-focused initiative (Honeycomb) is tied to Thinking Huts’ education expansion.

Energy Policy: Madagascar has reinstated a nationwide state of energy emergency, citing renewed Middle East tensions and fuel-price uncertainty, aiming to secure refined product supplies and protect essential services. Digital Finance: Airtel Money Madagascar and Baobab Bank launched an interoperable, 24/7 mobile transfer service between Baobab accounts and Airtel Money wallets, pushing financial inclusion. Mining & Investment: Total Graphite temporarily paused production at the Vatomina graphite mine to complete drilling and optimisation work, targeting a restart of over 1,000 tonnes per month from December, while also advancing downstream plans and Mozambique feasibility work. Human Security: A reported surge in disappearances in Madagascar—especially in Antananarivo—has raised fears of a deeper institutional confidence crisis, with authorities facing pressure during the political transition. Climate Risk: El Niño forecasts point to drought risk in southern Madagascar and higher cyclone intensity in the east, with Action Against Hunger warning of looming food and nutrition impacts. Bilateral Ties: Madagascar hosted a reception marking the 25th anniversary of the China–Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, with business and public figures in attendance.

Mobile Money Push: Airtel Money Madagascar and Baobab Bank Madagascar launched an interoperable 24/7 mobile transfer service, letting customers move funds between wallets and bank accounts via the My Baobab app—another step for financial inclusion. Energy Shock Management: Madagascar reimposed a nationwide state of energy emergency, citing Middle East-driven oil market uncertainty and aiming to secure fuel supplies and protect essential services. Mining Update: Total Graphite paused production at the Vatomina mine to complete drilling and optimisation work, targeting a restart of over 1,000 tonnes per month from December, while also advancing downstream plans in Mozambique. Climate & Food Risk: Action Against Hunger warned El Niño could worsen drought in southern Madagascar and raise cyclone risk in the east, threatening crops and food security. Public Safety Crisis: Police recorded 172 disappearances this year (including 91 children), with fears rising in Antananarivo despite increased patrols—highlighting deeper institutional trust gaps. Education & Solar: Thinking Huts’ Honeycomb solar-powered campus in Madagascar is expanding access for children from three villages, as the group prepares its next-generation education-linked business push. Regional Business/Trade Context: Total Graphite’s Mozambique focus and broader energy training efforts underscore how Madagascar’s economy remains tied to regional energy and critical-minerals momentum.

Energy & Fuel Security: Madagascar reimposes a nationwide state of energy emergency, citing renewed Middle East tensions and oil-market uncertainty, to protect fuel supplies and keep essential services running. Mining & Jobs: Total Graphite temporarily halts production at the Vatomina graphite mine to complete drilling and operational optimisation, targeting a restart of over 1,000 tonnes per month from December. Climate Risk for Business & Food: Action Against Hunger warns El Niño could bring drought to southern Madagascar and higher cyclone risk in the east, threatening crops, food security and livelihoods. Regional Integration: Malawi signs the SADC Protocol on the Facilitation of Movement of Persons, aiming to reduce barriers to travel and support economic development across the region. Diplomacy & Trade Links: Madagascar hosts a reception marking the 25th anniversary of the Russia–China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, with business and public leaders attending. Humanitarian & Health: Two Malagasy citizens injured in 2025 protests return home after treatment and rehabilitation in Russia. Energy Skills Pipeline: Energy Transition Africa selects 15 pan-African fellows from eight countries to train for tackling the continent’s energy crisis.

Energy Policy: Madagascar has reinstated a nationwide energy emergency, citing renewed Middle East tensions that are adding uncertainty to global oil markets and threatening fuel supply and essential services. Mining & Investment: Total Graphite has paused production at its Vatomina graphite mine to complete drilling and operational optimisation, aiming to restart at over 1,000 tonnes per month from December 2026. Climate Risk for Business & Food: Action Against Hunger warns that a very strong El Niño could hit Madagascar with drought in the south and higher cyclone risk in the east, raising pressure on crops, food security, and livelihoods. Regional Energy Cooperation: SADC ministers met in Salima, Malawi, to review regional peace and security, with broader governance and stability issues tied to economic development. Trade & Mobility: India’s 2026 e-Visa list includes Madagascar, easing online visa access for tourism, business and medical travel. Diplomacy & Economy: Madagascar hosted a reception marking the 25th anniversary of the Russia–China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, with participation from state bodies and public and business circles.

Energy Security: Madagascar reimposes a nationwide state of energy emergency, citing renewed Middle East tensions that could disrupt global oil supplies and raise fuel prices—aimed at securing imports and protecting essential services. Mining & Jobs: Total Graphite temporarily halts production at its Vatomina graphite mine to complete drilling and operational optimisation, targeting a restart of over 1,000 tonnes per month from December 2026. Climate Risk & Food Security: New El Niño forecasts warn of drought in southern Madagascar and higher cyclone risk on the east coast, with Action Against Hunger urging earlier action to prevent food and nutrition crises. Trade & Connectivity: India publishes a 2026 e-Visa list including Madagascar, easing online entry for tourism, business and medical travel. Diplomacy & Health: Two Malagasy citizens injured in 2025 protests return home after surgical treatment and rehabilitation in Russia, supported by Russian Defence Ministry medical assistance. Regional Skills: Energy Transition Africa selects 15 fellows from eight countries (including Madagascar’s Dieudonne Soatsara) to train on Africa’s energy crisis.

Energy Skills for Africa: Energy Transition Africa says it has lined up training for 15 “Cohort Zero” Pan-African fellows after a competitive selection of 231 applicants from eight countries, aiming to close gaps in energy crisis expertise. Humanitarian Return: Two Malagasy citizens injured during protests in late 2025 have returned home after surgery, diagnostics and rehabilitation in Russia, with Madagascar officials and the Russian diplomatic mission meeting them on arrival. Climate Risk for Madagascar: Action Against Hunger warns that NOAA forecasts point to a very strong El Niño in 2026, with Madagascar facing drought in the south and higher cyclone risk in the east. Graphite Business Update: Total Graphite has paused production at its Vatomina mine to complete drilling and operational optimisation, targeting a restart of over 1,000 tonnes per month from December 2026. Regional Integration: Malawi signed the SADC Protocol on the Facilitation of Movement of Persons, pushing freer travel to support economic development and social progress. Diplomacy & Trade Ties: Madagascar hosted a reception marking the 25th anniversary of the Russia–China Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, with Prime Minister and business representatives attending.

El Niño Risk for Madagascar: Action Against Hunger warns that 2026’s very strong El Niño could bring drought to southern Madagascar and higher cyclone risk on the east, hitting already fragile food and livelihoods. Mining & Jobs: Total Graphite temporarily halted production at its Vatomina graphite mine to complete drilling and operational upgrades, aiming to restart at over 1,000 tonnes per month from December; the company also flagged cash buffers and ongoing Mozambique project work. Regional Integration: Malawi signed the SADC Protocol on the Facilitation of Movement of Persons, pushing gradual removal of barriers to travel and supporting SADC goals tied to economic development. Education Connectivity: Airtel Africa, with UNICEF support, is expanding school internet access across Africa; the programme targets 5,000 schools by 2027, with Madagascar in the broader regional push for digital learning. Trade & Travel Policy: India published its 2026 e-Visa list for 32 African countries including Madagascar, easing online entry for tourism, business and medical travel.

Graphite & Mining: Total Graphite paused production at its Vatomina graphite mine in Madagascar for drilling and operational upgrades, targeting a restart at over 1,000 tonnes per month from December 2026. Regional Security: SADC energy and water ministers met in Pretoria, with the agenda tied to electrification plans like “Mission 300,” while separate SADC defence and security talks in Malawi focused on DRC conflict, terrorism, organised crime and cybercrime. Diplomacy & Geopolitics: Madagascar hosted a reception marking the 25th anniversary of the China–Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, with Prime Minister Mamitiana Rajaonarison among attendees. Education & Connectivity: Airtel Africa plans to connect 5,000 schools across Africa to the internet by 2027, building on Malawi’s Nzeru Connect rollout. Climate Risk & Resilience: UN-linked reporting flags El Niño impacts across southern and eastern Africa, with Madagascar listed among high-risk countries. Policy & Institutions: A World Intellectual Property Organization update notes a first MoU and work plan with Madagascar to strengthen national IP capacity.

Regional Security & Governance: SADC ministers met in Salima, Malawi to review peace and security across Southern Africa, with eastern DRC conflict, terrorism, organised crime, cybercrime and governance on the agenda. DRC Resource Crime: Reports say the M23 rebel group looted about 500kg of gold worth around $70m from the Twangiza Mining concession in South Kivu, highlighting how armed groups keep monetising mineral wealth. Education Connectivity: Airtel Africa says it will expand its school internet programme, aiming to connect 5,000 schools across 13 countries by 2027; in Malawi, 36 schools are already connected with more planned. Climate Risk Finance: Kenya is set to benefit from a UN emergency fund of up to $100m to prepare for El Niño impacts, with Madagascar also flagged as high risk. Policy & Spending Efficiency: SADC officials in Johannesburg will train on cost-benefit analysis to help governments prioritise spending amid tight budgets. Business Mobility Rules: India released its 2026 e-Visa list covering 32 African countries including Madagascar, while Tanzania published a 2026 visa-free entry list naming 21 African nations.

Visa & travel access: India published its 2026 e-Visa list for 32 African countries, including Madagascar, easing online applications for tourism, business and medical travel. Climate risk & resilience: Kenya is set to receive up to $100m (Sh13bn) from a UN emergency fund ahead of El Niño, with forecasts also flagging Madagascar among 22 African countries at high risk of climate shocks. Education & connectivity: Airtel Africa plans to connect 5,000 schools across 13 countries with free internet and UNICEF-backed digital learning by 2027; in Malawi, 36 schools are already connected. Public spending skills: SADC officials will train in Johannesburg on cost-benefit analysis to help governments prioritize spending under tight budgets. Business & investment theme: A new report argues Africa’s next step is moving from exporting raw commodities to building more value through processing, services and skills. IP cooperation: The EPO signed a work plan with Madagascar after meetings at WIPO’s General Assembly in Geneva.

Sanctions & Payments: A new investigation says Russia-linked “A7” is expanding in Africa, using events and an African office network to help move money and evade Western sanctions, with Belarusian businessman Aliaksandr Zingman reportedly spotted at the Lagos launch. Rule of Law & Prosperity: A 2026 Freedom and Prosperity Index warns that rule-of-law erosion is accelerating globally since 2020, threatening broad-based economic gains. Critical Minerals to Value-Add: A policy push argues Africa must move beyond exporting raw commodities toward processing, services, and skills to capture more value from the minerals boom. Education Connectivity: Airtel Africa plans to connect 5,000 schools to the internet by 2027 via UNICEF-backed zero-rated learning platforms and teacher training. Public Spending Skills: SADC officials will train in Johannesburg on cost-benefit analysis to help governments spend limited budgets more effectively. World Bank Income Update: The World Bank’s 2026 income classification upgrade puts Togo from low-income to lower-middle-income; Kenya, Nigeria, Ghana and Egypt stay lower-middle-income. Waste & Environment: Zimbabwe’s President appoints a waste-management and sustainability special advisor to speed up cleaner-city efforts. Drug Trafficking Crackdowns: Nigeria’s NDLEA reports major airport and port seizures tied to suspected transnational trafficking, including heroin and large cannabis consignments. Ocean Governance: With the High Seas Treaty in force, West African proposals for marine protected areas are gaining momentum, raising questions on enforcement and coordination.

Waste & Environment: President Mnangagwa has appointed Dr Dilesh Nguwaya, CEO of Geo Pomona Waste Management, as Special Advisor on Waste Management and Environmental Sustainability, aiming to speed up cleaner-city efforts under mounting urban waste pressure. Public Finance & Delivery: More than 140 SADC officials will meet in Johannesburg (15–17 July) for training on cost-benefit analysis to help governments spend limited budgets more effectively across health, education, infrastructure and climate resilience. Trade & Mobility (Visa rules): Angola published an updated 2026 visa-free list for short stays (up to 30 days), including Madagascar; separate reporting also highlights visa-exemption lists affecting African travelers’ access to Tanzania and Barbados. Innovation & IP: The EPO says it signed a first MoU and work plan with Madagascar during WIPO’s General Assembly in Geneva to build national IP capacity. Education Access: New analysis flags that Madagascar is among countries improving school participation, even as over 100 million African children remain out of school. Security & Economy Links: Madagascar appears in broader regional visa lists, while international coverage also underscores how cross-border enforcement and governance shape travel and business risk.